Bowl Picks Part II: Bowl Week
I miss New Year’s Day. I don’t think enough is made about what we lost when the BCS took hold in 1998 and the Bowl Alliance prior to that starting in 1995. New Year’s Day was the undisputed best sporting day of the year. There wasn’t even a close second. Even as a kid, I knew, New Year’s Day meant football, food and at least 12 hours of awesome.
Now clearly the decision for the bowls to move to different days was to prevent channel-flipping and increase ratings but it ruined the essence of New Year’s Day. When all the games were on New Year’s Day, you were all but guaranteed a full day of exciting football – exciting being the key word. The Rose Bowl not doing it for you this year? Switch to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sugar Bowl a blowout? It’s all good, there’s the Orange Bowl.
The problem with the current setup is that there’s always a chance that your New Year’s Day falls far short of expectations. I remember New Year’s Day 2003 vividly – Oklahoma and Georgia came through with blowouts in the Rose and Sugar Bowls. I ended up watching VH1’s I Love The 80s that entire day and I was really sad. Something similar happened in 2007 when USC embarrassed Illinois and then Georgia did the same that night in the Sugar Bowl. No surprise that was the lowest-rated Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl of the BCS era.
Channel flipping is okay if it’s between football games. The NFL seems to do okay every Sunday. Channel flipping is not okay if it means no football on New Year’s Day. Oh well, enough of my bitching. Maybe someday, the powers at be will realize that a vibrant New Year’s Day would silence a lot of the BCS haters via distraction.
Texas Tech -9.5 over Northwestern
TicketCity Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, noon, ESPNU
You know, just because the Cotton Bowl left the Cotton Bowl stadium doesn’t mean you need to shove a game in there on New Year’s morning. I say that now but there was a very real chance that Texas was going to land here for most of November. As is, we have a Texas Tech team that showed a little fight late in the year against a Northwestern team without its best player, QB Dan Persa. In the two games Persa has been out, Northwestern has been destroyed by Illinois and Wisconsin. I understand getting a month to prepare might help but it’s not nearly enough. Texas Tech will enjoy stomping the yard in the Cotton Bowl. If they close their eyes and make believe the 40,000 empty seats don’t exist, they could fool themselves into thinking they’re winning the Cotton Bowl. Or not.
Penn State +7 over Florida
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
I’m a little worried with reports that disenfranchised Florida fans starting gobbling up tickets once they found out it would be Urban Meyer’s last game. Will this Florida team rise up and send Urban out with a victory? Most times, I would agree Florida has the superior motivation along with superior talent, so they should win easy. But despite Florida’s talent, they have failed to beat a team with a pulse all year, with the possible exception of 6-6 Georgia. They finished the year with two pathetic efforts in blowout losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Forget about SEC strength – Florida is not very good this year. Penn State, on the other hand, ended the year strong, going 4-2 with the losses coming to two Top 10 teams. And they gave Michigan State all they wanted and Ohio State all they wanted for a half. Penn State is a young, improving team and those are usually the type of teams that come up big in bowl games. I’ll take them over the underachievers from Florida.
Michigan State +10 over Alabama
Capital One Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
In my mind, this game is a total toss up. On paper, Alabama has better talent. But on paper, Alabama has better talent than every team they played this year and they lost three times. I also have serious concerns about Alabama’s motivation. They were supposed to contend for another national title, with the BCS as an absolute must. Instead, they lost three times, gave away the Auburn game and have a boatload of players with one foot out the door for the NFL. Mark Dantonio has his Michigan State team believing they need to win this game to validate their regular season and you know he wants to beat his former mentor, Nick Saban. And for Michigan State fans – they haven’t forgotten about Saban jumping ship back in 1999 at the first opportunity to do so. Alabama is about a touchdown better in my opinion but Michigan State has about a touchdown advantage in motivation. This game will be close and Michigan State will pull out a close one late.
Mississippi State -5 over Michigan
Gator Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
I am really, really looking forward to this game, probably more so than just about anyone else is. I remember Mississippi State bottling up Cam Newton back in September, basically the only team all year that was able to do so. Will they be able to do the same thing to Denard Robinson? How does Michigan come out knowing that Rich Rodriguez’s job could be on the line if they lose? I also believe Mississippi State will come out with extra fire knowing that coach Dan Mullen, in all likelihood, isn’t going anywhere this offseason and they can continue to build on a remarkable season. There will be a lot of Bulldogs fans and cowbells in the stands…and I think they’re going to be celebrating.
Wisconsin +2.5 over TCU
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
I have gone back and forth on this pick and I continue to do so. And I will likely continue to do so up until kickoff time. Why Wisconsin? Because last year’s Fiesta Bowl remains too fresh in my memory. TCU was simply not ready for the enormity of the moment against a confident, veteran Boise State team that understood the early struggles were part of the big game experience. You could say TCU has learned but how do we know? What other big game did they play in? They played one big game this year and they blew Utah out. The only other “big game” they played was against a 5-7 Oregon State team, who they let hang around until Oregon State shot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to shoot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to be overcome by the moment. The Badgers have the confidence, the talent and the running game to dictate the pace and feel of the game. In the end, this will end up being a Wisconsin game more than a TCU game and the Badgers will win out in the end. One unfortunate by product of blowing everyone out is not going through the myriad situations that come up in close games.
UConn +17 over Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 8 p.m., ESPN
Okay, so as a UConn season ticket holder, I’m not going to make an objective pick here. I fully understand Oklahoma is a superior team. I know the Sooners have a better offense. There are two things UConn can match up with Oklahoma, though, and they’re pretty important – coaching and defense. I’m not going to say Randy Edsall is a better coach than Bob Stoops but it’s an even matchup, in my eyes. And secondly, UConn simply has a better defense than Oklahoma. You can argue the OU defense is underrated because the offense puts up such gaudy numbers. However, the UConn defense has carried the Huskies in their five-game winning streak. So how does UConn win, or at least cover? It’s all about defense. The UConn defense stands firm, clogs up Oklahoma with its bend and don’t break philosophy and the Sooners get frustrated with field goals. I saw it happen to West Virginia. I saw it happen to Pitt. I hope to see it happen again New Year’s Night.
Or Oklahoma wins by 50. There’s really no in-between here.
Stanford -3 over Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl
Monday, Jan. 3, 8 p.m., ESPN
I think this game is a bigger referendum on ACC football than people are making it out to be. The conference has won a grand total of ONE major bowl game since Florida State won the national title in 1999. The lone win? Virginia Tech taking down Cincinnati in the least attended, least viewed Orange Bowl in many, many years, if not ever. The ACC needs a victory. Virginia Tech has been the conference’s standard bearer since it joined in 2004 but has been stunningly unable to beat the quality nonconference opponents. Here’s another opportunity…and they have no chance. Stanford is going to obliterate Virginia Tech. Stanford would’ve gone 12-0 in the ACC and may not have been played a game within two touchdowns. At some point, we may realize the ACC is the worst football conference but at least on Jan. 3rd, we’ll get another reminder. And sadly, there will be another round of “the ACC is finally good in football!” stories come August, because there is every August. The ACC falls to 1-10 in BCS bowl games since 2000. Yes, 1-10!
Arkansas +3.5 over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4, 8 p.m., ESPN
I cannot wait for this game for a multitude of reasons. First, the atmosphere should be incredible with at least 25,000 Arkansas fans fired up and ready to go, along with the usual horde of Ohio State fans that show up anywhere. Secondly, there is NFL-quality talent all over the field, starting with both quarterbacks. Third, the coaching matchup is delicious with the new-school Bobby Petrino matching wits against the decidedly old-school Jim Tressel. As if all of that weren’t enough, we get the fun added subplot of Ohio State being a miserable 0-9 against the SEC in bowl games. It will be 0-10 come Jan. 5th because Ohio State does not have a defense good enough to slow down Arkansas. And unless Pryor morphs back into his Rose Bowl form, Ohio State won’t be able to keep up in a shootout.
Middle Tennessee +1.5 over Miami, Ohio
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
Middle Tennessee is the best 6-6 team in Sun Belt history. They were without QB Dwight Dasher, the team’s best player for the first four games that included two tight losses to Minnesota and Memphis. If Dasher plays all 12, I saw Middle Tennessee is at least 8-4, if not 9-3. Miami, Ohio, on the other hand, made a crazy turnaround from last year’s 1-11 record but were handed the MAC title game by Northern Illinois, which has inflated their team’s reputation. Middle Tennessee should be favored – especially since Miami just lost its coach to Pitt – and they will prove so in a nice win for the Sun Belt. And we saw another Sun Belt/MAC matchup in the New Orleans Bowl and it wasn’t pretty for the MAC.
LSU -1 over Texas A&M
Cotton Bowl
Friday, Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Another game that should benefit from an electric atmosphere in JerryWorld on a Friday night. Texas A&M definitely enters the game with more momentum but how well will that hold up roughly six weeks after its last game? LSU could use the time off to get the bad taste out of its mouth following the year-end loss to Arkansas that really soured the season for LSU. Did you know this is the only Big XII/SEC matchup of the postseason? That doesn’t seem right, does it? Texas A&M’s vaunted offense looked downright pedestrian in its last outing against an elite defense, struggling mightily to score in an ugly victory over Nebraska. Unfortunately for A&M, LSU has an even better defense. LSU wins a close, low-scoring, ugly affair.
Pitt -3 over Kentucky
BBVA Compass Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 8, noon, ESPN
What’s the opposite of an electric atmosphere? I’d say the decrepit Legion Field on a Saturday afternoon in January with two football teams that would rather be anywhere else in the world. Pitt just fired its coach while Kentucky fans, even though it was the first year for new head man Joker Phillips, are tired of 6-6 seasons ending with crappy bowl appearances. I give Pitt the nod here since they have better players, they showed a lot of heart in the season-ending win over Cincinnati and they’ll be motivated internally to win the game for Dave Wannstedt. Kentucky just isn’t very good, as evident by their poor season-ending loss to Tennessee.
Nevada -9.5 over Boston College
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Sunday, Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Hide the women and children. Nevada is a legit top 10 team with an unstoppable offense and they’re very excited to be in San Francisco along with more than 20,000 of its fans who have reportedly snapped up tickets. Boston College is a middling, offensively offensive team that only made it to bowl eligibility thanks to a Charmin soft schedule. Nevada’s best win: national title contender Boise State. BC’s best win: 6-6 Clemson. Uhh, yeah. If Nevada didn’t want to be here, they could lose. But they do want to be here. This game will serve as a nationally-televised three-plus hour celebration of the winningest class in Nevada football history. Boston College is just there to get beat.
I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Randy Edsall, since I’m in an anti-BC place right now, “UConn is the first team from New England to play in a BCS bowl.” Indeed, Coach Edsall, indeed.
Now clearly the decision for the bowls to move to different days was to prevent channel-flipping and increase ratings but it ruined the essence of New Year’s Day. When all the games were on New Year’s Day, you were all but guaranteed a full day of exciting football – exciting being the key word. The Rose Bowl not doing it for you this year? Switch to the Fiesta Bowl. The Sugar Bowl a blowout? It’s all good, there’s the Orange Bowl.
The problem with the current setup is that there’s always a chance that your New Year’s Day falls far short of expectations. I remember New Year’s Day 2003 vividly – Oklahoma and Georgia came through with blowouts in the Rose and Sugar Bowls. I ended up watching VH1’s I Love The 80s that entire day and I was really sad. Something similar happened in 2007 when USC embarrassed Illinois and then Georgia did the same that night in the Sugar Bowl. No surprise that was the lowest-rated Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl of the BCS era.
Channel flipping is okay if it’s between football games. The NFL seems to do okay every Sunday. Channel flipping is not okay if it means no football on New Year’s Day. Oh well, enough of my bitching. Maybe someday, the powers at be will realize that a vibrant New Year’s Day would silence a lot of the BCS haters via distraction.
Texas Tech -9.5 over Northwestern
TicketCity Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, noon, ESPNU
You know, just because the Cotton Bowl left the Cotton Bowl stadium doesn’t mean you need to shove a game in there on New Year’s morning. I say that now but there was a very real chance that Texas was going to land here for most of November. As is, we have a Texas Tech team that showed a little fight late in the year against a Northwestern team without its best player, QB Dan Persa. In the two games Persa has been out, Northwestern has been destroyed by Illinois and Wisconsin. I understand getting a month to prepare might help but it’s not nearly enough. Texas Tech will enjoy stomping the yard in the Cotton Bowl. If they close their eyes and make believe the 40,000 empty seats don’t exist, they could fool themselves into thinking they’re winning the Cotton Bowl. Or not.
Penn State +7 over FloridaOutback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ABC
I’m a little worried with reports that disenfranchised Florida fans starting gobbling up tickets once they found out it would be Urban Meyer’s last game. Will this Florida team rise up and send Urban out with a victory? Most times, I would agree Florida has the superior motivation along with superior talent, so they should win easy. But despite Florida’s talent, they have failed to beat a team with a pulse all year, with the possible exception of 6-6 Georgia. They finished the year with two pathetic efforts in blowout losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Forget about SEC strength – Florida is not very good this year. Penn State, on the other hand, ended the year strong, going 4-2 with the losses coming to two Top 10 teams. And they gave Michigan State all they wanted and Ohio State all they wanted for a half. Penn State is a young, improving team and those are usually the type of teams that come up big in bowl games. I’ll take them over the underachievers from Florida.
Michigan State +10 over Alabama
Capital One Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m., ESPN
In my mind, this game is a total toss up. On paper, Alabama has better talent. But on paper, Alabama has better talent than every team they played this year and they lost three times. I also have serious concerns about Alabama’s motivation. They were supposed to contend for another national title, with the BCS as an absolute must. Instead, they lost three times, gave away the Auburn game and have a boatload of players with one foot out the door for the NFL. Mark Dantonio has his Michigan State team believing they need to win this game to validate their regular season and you know he wants to beat his former mentor, Nick Saban. And for Michigan State fans – they haven’t forgotten about Saban jumping ship back in 1999 at the first opportunity to do so. Alabama is about a touchdown better in my opinion but Michigan State has about a touchdown advantage in motivation. This game will be close and Michigan State will pull out a close one late.
Mississippi State -5 over Michigan
Gator Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 1:30 p.m., ESPN2
I am really, really looking forward to this game, probably more so than just about anyone else is. I remember Mississippi State bottling up Cam Newton back in September, basically the only team all year that was able to do so. Will they be able to do the same thing to Denard Robinson? How does Michigan come out knowing that Rich Rodriguez’s job could be on the line if they lose? I also believe Mississippi State will come out with extra fire knowing that coach Dan Mullen, in all likelihood, isn’t going anywhere this offseason and they can continue to build on a remarkable season. There will be a lot of Bulldogs fans and cowbells in the stands…and I think they’re going to be celebrating.
Wisconsin +2.5 over TCURose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
I have gone back and forth on this pick and I continue to do so. And I will likely continue to do so up until kickoff time. Why Wisconsin? Because last year’s Fiesta Bowl remains too fresh in my memory. TCU was simply not ready for the enormity of the moment against a confident, veteran Boise State team that understood the early struggles were part of the big game experience. You could say TCU has learned but how do we know? What other big game did they play in? They played one big game this year and they blew Utah out. The only other “big game” they played was against a 5-7 Oregon State team, who they let hang around until Oregon State shot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to shoot themselves in the foot. Wisconsin is not going to be overcome by the moment. The Badgers have the confidence, the talent and the running game to dictate the pace and feel of the game. In the end, this will end up being a Wisconsin game more than a TCU game and the Badgers will win out in the end. One unfortunate by product of blowing everyone out is not going through the myriad situations that come up in close games.
UConn +17 over Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1, 8 p.m., ESPN
Okay, so as a UConn season ticket holder, I’m not going to make an objective pick here. I fully understand Oklahoma is a superior team. I know the Sooners have a better offense. There are two things UConn can match up with Oklahoma, though, and they’re pretty important – coaching and defense. I’m not going to say Randy Edsall is a better coach than Bob Stoops but it’s an even matchup, in my eyes. And secondly, UConn simply has a better defense than Oklahoma. You can argue the OU defense is underrated because the offense puts up such gaudy numbers. However, the UConn defense has carried the Huskies in their five-game winning streak. So how does UConn win, or at least cover? It’s all about defense. The UConn defense stands firm, clogs up Oklahoma with its bend and don’t break philosophy and the Sooners get frustrated with field goals. I saw it happen to West Virginia. I saw it happen to Pitt. I hope to see it happen again New Year’s Night.
Or Oklahoma wins by 50. There’s really no in-between here.
Stanford -3 over Virginia TechOrange Bowl
Monday, Jan. 3, 8 p.m., ESPN
I think this game is a bigger referendum on ACC football than people are making it out to be. The conference has won a grand total of ONE major bowl game since Florida State won the national title in 1999. The lone win? Virginia Tech taking down Cincinnati in the least attended, least viewed Orange Bowl in many, many years, if not ever. The ACC needs a victory. Virginia Tech has been the conference’s standard bearer since it joined in 2004 but has been stunningly unable to beat the quality nonconference opponents. Here’s another opportunity…and they have no chance. Stanford is going to obliterate Virginia Tech. Stanford would’ve gone 12-0 in the ACC and may not have been played a game within two touchdowns. At some point, we may realize the ACC is the worst football conference but at least on Jan. 3rd, we’ll get another reminder. And sadly, there will be another round of “the ACC is finally good in football!” stories come August, because there is every August. The ACC falls to 1-10 in BCS bowl games since 2000. Yes, 1-10!
Arkansas +3.5 over Ohio State
Sugar Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4, 8 p.m., ESPN
I cannot wait for this game for a multitude of reasons. First, the atmosphere should be incredible with at least 25,000 Arkansas fans fired up and ready to go, along with the usual horde of Ohio State fans that show up anywhere. Secondly, there is NFL-quality talent all over the field, starting with both quarterbacks. Third, the coaching matchup is delicious with the new-school Bobby Petrino matching wits against the decidedly old-school Jim Tressel. As if all of that weren’t enough, we get the fun added subplot of Ohio State being a miserable 0-9 against the SEC in bowl games. It will be 0-10 come Jan. 5th because Ohio State does not have a defense good enough to slow down Arkansas. And unless Pryor morphs back into his Rose Bowl form, Ohio State won’t be able to keep up in a shootout.
Middle Tennessee +1.5 over Miami, Ohio
GoDaddy.com Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 6, 8 p.m., ESPN
Middle Tennessee is the best 6-6 team in Sun Belt history. They were without QB Dwight Dasher, the team’s best player for the first four games that included two tight losses to Minnesota and Memphis. If Dasher plays all 12, I saw Middle Tennessee is at least 8-4, if not 9-3. Miami, Ohio, on the other hand, made a crazy turnaround from last year’s 1-11 record but were handed the MAC title game by Northern Illinois, which has inflated their team’s reputation. Middle Tennessee should be favored – especially since Miami just lost its coach to Pitt – and they will prove so in a nice win for the Sun Belt. And we saw another Sun Belt/MAC matchup in the New Orleans Bowl and it wasn’t pretty for the MAC.
LSU -1 over Texas A&M
Cotton Bowl
Friday, Jan. 7, 8 p.m., Fox
Another game that should benefit from an electric atmosphere in JerryWorld on a Friday night. Texas A&M definitely enters the game with more momentum but how well will that hold up roughly six weeks after its last game? LSU could use the time off to get the bad taste out of its mouth following the year-end loss to Arkansas that really soured the season for LSU. Did you know this is the only Big XII/SEC matchup of the postseason? That doesn’t seem right, does it? Texas A&M’s vaunted offense looked downright pedestrian in its last outing against an elite defense, struggling mightily to score in an ugly victory over Nebraska. Unfortunately for A&M, LSU has an even better defense. LSU wins a close, low-scoring, ugly affair.
Pitt -3 over Kentucky
BBVA Compass Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 8, noon, ESPN
What’s the opposite of an electric atmosphere? I’d say the decrepit Legion Field on a Saturday afternoon in January with two football teams that would rather be anywhere else in the world. Pitt just fired its coach while Kentucky fans, even though it was the first year for new head man Joker Phillips, are tired of 6-6 seasons ending with crappy bowl appearances. I give Pitt the nod here since they have better players, they showed a lot of heart in the season-ending win over Cincinnati and they’ll be motivated internally to win the game for Dave Wannstedt. Kentucky just isn’t very good, as evident by their poor season-ending loss to Tennessee.
Nevada -9.5 over Boston CollegeKraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Sunday, Jan. 9, 9 p.m., ESPN
Hide the women and children. Nevada is a legit top 10 team with an unstoppable offense and they’re very excited to be in San Francisco along with more than 20,000 of its fans who have reportedly snapped up tickets. Boston College is a middling, offensively offensive team that only made it to bowl eligibility thanks to a Charmin soft schedule. Nevada’s best win: national title contender Boise State. BC’s best win: 6-6 Clemson. Uhh, yeah. If Nevada didn’t want to be here, they could lose. But they do want to be here. This game will serve as a nationally-televised three-plus hour celebration of the winningest class in Nevada football history. Boston College is just there to get beat.
I’ll leave you with the immortal words of Randy Edsall, since I’m in an anti-BC place right now, “UConn is the first team from New England to play in a BCS bowl.” Indeed, Coach Edsall, indeed.
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