Bowl Picks Part III: New Year's Bowls
The week between Christmas and New Year’s is my favorite week of the year. I really don’t understand why people hate bowls so much. From Monday through New Year’s Day, there is almost literally always a football game on. Wednesday at 3pm? Check. Thursday at noon? Check. Friday morning at 1 a.m.? Check. Why would we ever want to get rid of this?
When I was in college, I took great pride in trying to watch every single bowl game during my winter break. I was able to do so in 2002, highlighted by a tremendously uninteresting Oklahoma State/Southern Miss bowl game on an early weekday afternoon. It prompted my younger sister, than in high school, to proclaim, “You really need to get a life.” It was one of my prouder moments.
West Virginia -3 over North Carolina StateChamps Sports Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
It’s been a crazy time for West Virginia football to say the least, considering Coach Bill Stewart apparently knew he was toast in early November. They really, really don’t like losing to UConn in Morgantown. More pressing for this game, how will the players react? I’m not sure if we’ve ever seen a situation like this before where the coach is on his way out…but not for another year. We’ve seen teams rally around lame duck coaches. Will West Virginia rally around Stewart who is a lame duck coach for more than a year? An incredibly bizareer situation. With all those questions running through my mind, I went with West Virginia because they’re the better team. NC State proved in their pitiful season-ending loss to Maryland that they’re not ready to be a winning program yet. They may become that. They just aren’t yet. West Virginia would like to get to 10 wins and make a statement about its elite status within the Big East. I think.
Missouri -1 over Iowa
Insight Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28, 10 p.m., ESPN
It’s been a crazy time for Iowa football to say the least, considering its best wide receivers was running a drug house, its starting running back is suspended and school officials are admitting there were flaws in its drug testing program. Uh, that’s not good. Missouri is seemingly always miffed by its bowl selection. Most years, they’re stunned who passed them over. This year, they’re stunned they were picked over Nebraska. There’s really no reason why this isn’t Nebraska/Iowa – an infinitely more interesting Big Ten preview game – and why Missouri isn’t in the Holiday Bowl, where they have been in ages. Missouri is a far superior team to the Iowa squad that lost its last three, including a woeful effort against Minnesota. Iowa’s only hope is that the off-field distractions caused the players to rally around each other. Unfortunately, they’re still not good enough to win.
East Carolina +7 over Maryland
Military Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Another simple pick based on motivation – East Carolina wants to be here, Maryland doesn’t. In fact, Maryland has gone out of its way to voice its displeasure with being passed over in the ACC bowl pecking order and ending up in a game 20 miles from campus against a middling Conference USA team. I can’t feel too bad for Maryland since they can’t sell out their stadium and are in serious danger of being outdrawn for this game by the middle Conference USA team. East Carolina is a perfect bowl team because they score like crazy and don’t care about defense. They will be amped up, they will be well-supported and they will score a lot of points. If Maryland pulls it out, it won’t be easy, and it won’t be by more than a touchdown.
Baylor -1.5 over Illinois
Texas Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN
Baylor is playing in its first bowl game since 1994 and early reports have Texas Bowl tickets flying out the door to excited Baylor fans and alums. Illinois, on the other hand, is coming off of a disappointing loss to Fresno State to end the season a very mediocre 6-6. It’s an interesting measure of the Big XII and the Big Ten considering both teams basically beat the bad teams in its conference and lost to the good ones. Who is better? I like Baylor based strictly on the fact Robert Griffin is their quarterback. The last time Illinois faced a quarterback that athletically talented, Denard Robinson was having the game of his life, which is really saying something, before getting injured. No matter, since Tate Forcier came in and did the same to a weak Illinois defense. They will have no answer for Griffin.
Oklahoma State -5.5 over ArizonaAlamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29, 9:15 p.m., ESPN
An easy BEST PICK for Bowl Week and, honestly, I don’t think they could’ve made this line high enough. I’m well aware Okie State is disappointed from the Oklahoma loss and still feels like it finally had a chance to crack the BCS. It didn’t happen but it was still a huge leap forward for the program to have such a great season when they weren’t expected to. They are becoming a yearly power in the Big XII under Mike Gundy. As for Arizona, their dream season turned into a nightmare with a terrible four-game losing streak to end the year, including a loss to mediocre in-state rival Arizona State. The only team of note Arizona beat was Iowa and, well, the Hawkeyes weren’t very good this year either. Oklahoma State couldn’t beat the elite teams but they handled just about everyone else. Arizona falls into the ‘everyone else’ category.
SMU -8 over Army
Armed Forces Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, noon, ESPN
I want to pick Army. I would really like to see them win this game. Unfortunately, I don’t see it happening. Army had a great year and it is a definite building block for the future. But they didn’t beat anyone of note, and were uncompetitive in games against Notre Dame and Navy down the stretch. SMU isn’t a powerhouse, but it won its Conference USA division and is clearly trending upwards under June Jones. The fact that SMU will be playing this game in their home stadium – their first mainland bowl game since pre-Death Penalty – should give us a motivated Mustangs team ready to make another statement about the program’s resurrection. For 2010, Army’s goal was to make a bowl game. I think their goal in 2011 will be to win one.
Syracuse PICK over Kansas State
Pinstripe Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 3:15 p.m., ESPN
The last time I watched Syracuse play, they were getting ambushed by UConn. The Huskies have a good defense but they looked like the 85 Bears against Syracuse. They could’ve played 12 quarters that night and Syracuse wouldn’t have scored a touchdown. So why am I picking Syracuse? Because the game isn’t at the Carrier Dome! Yes, ‘Cuse was dreadful at home but wonderful on the road, beating West Virginia and South Florida as well as destroying Cincinnati. If there’s a logical explanation, I’d love to hear it. Kansas State had a very blah season – arguably the only game that sticks out is the beatdown Nebraska delivered on a Thursday night. This is a huge game for Syracuse and its program. I don’t see it meaning nearly as much for Kansas State.
Tennessee +2 over North Carolina
Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 6:45 p.m., ESPN
The All-Freshman Team, aka Tennessee, is ready to make a statement. Isn’t it funny how many bowl games are about making statements or referendums about where a program is? It’s almost more important than skill levels or x’s and o’s. In this game, Tennessee is over the moon they were able to make a bowl game after starting 2-6 to get the extra bowl practices for its young roster and allow its fans to descend on Nashville. UNC has had a trying year, to say the least, and ending up in this game is certainly not what was expected back in August, before the suspensions, allegations and scandal. And no bowl win is going to erase the black mark on the program. UT, on the other hand, appears to be coming out from the other side of the Lane Kiffin error and this will put the cherry on top of a surprisingly successful 7-6 season.
Washington +14 over Nebraska
Holiday Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30, 10 p.m., ESPN
Yes, we already saw this game. Yes, we already saw Nebraska destroy Washington. So why will this be different? For starters, Bo Pelini hadn’t emasculated his best player on national television before the first game and said star player wasn’t hurt. Secondly, Jake Locker is now healthy. Thirdly, Washington hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2002, which is remarkable for such a legendary pac-10 program. If this were a regular season game and Nebraska had something tangible to play for, they would win. Nebraska, instead, is in disarray, dealing with injuries and trying to overcome a bad loss in the Big XII title game in which they had the game in hand only to blow it. In the end, we have one of the extreme differences in motivation for the whole bowl season – Washington is thrilled to play in a bowl game with an opportunity to avenge an awful loss while Nebraska would like to be anywhere else playing anyone else.
Clemson -4.5 over USF
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, noon, ESPN
How’s this for an endorsement of UConn – I’m picking Clemson because USF couldn’t beat UConn. If you watched the UConn/USF game, first, my apologies. But if you did, you saw a UConn team that could not do anything offensively. I mean quite literally, they were unable to move the ball forward. Yet, for the fourth time this season, USF lost to a team that scored less than 20 points. If I haven’t made it clear, USF HAS A TERRIBLE OFFENSE. Clemson isn’t a great offensive team but they only need to get to 21 to cover. They’ll get to 21. Fun fact: the last time USF played in this game, they lost 14-0. Ugh.
Notre Dame +3 over Miami, Fla.Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
The perfect bowl matchup. A renewal of a classic rivalry. A beautiful setting in El Paso. A sold-out, frenzied crowd. The timeless CBS college football theme song. It’ll feel like a big time bowl game. Unfortunately, the only thing missing will be the big time teams. As is, Miami is the more talented team but one with serious quarterback issues. Also, their last game was a terrible loss to the USF team who, as I mentioned above, is severely limited offensively. Notre Dame was a lot of things this year but they were always able to move the ball. Even without its starting QB, WR, TE and RB, they were able to put up a lot of points down the stretch in a key three-game winning streak that saved the season. Brian Kelly has the Irish moving in the right direction and a win over Miami would seal the deal. For Miami, their motivation is nil – they’re playing for an interim coach while the next coach lurks in the shadows, learning his team. Miami is a better team but Notre Dame will play better.
Georgia -6.5 over UCF
Liberty Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
I was tempted to make this my best pick but I’m never quite sure if A.J. Green will try to sell another article of game-worn clothing for a quick buck. I guess now that the NFL millions are closer in view, he’ll refrain until afterwards. UCF had a very good season and is ranked, but they’re not even in Georgia’s league. If you watched UCF this year, you saw a scrappy team with some young talent that could be poised for a huge 2011. You also saw very weak Conference USA competition and a breeze in the Conference USA title game when SMU failed to show up. Georgia played one of the nation’s toughest schedule and went toe to toe with Auburn for three quarters. I don’t think UCF would last one quarter against Auburn. Georgia played great in another seemingly meaningless bowl game last year in the Independence Bowl so I fully expect them to show up ready to play this year.
Florida State +3 over South Carolina
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Steve Spurrier versus Florida State conjures up some great memories, even if it’s not quite the same without Bobby Bowden on the other side. And I think Spurrier will be thinking it’s a lot harder without Bowden there since Jimbo Fisher has infused the Seminoles with energy for the first time since 2000. South Carolina was demoralized in its loss to Auburn in the SEC title game and you have to wonder about their state of mind after that. Both teams want to win this game, but Carolina comes in on a down note while Florida State, despite losing to Virginia Tech, is encourage by its late season performance. Florida State knows that the state of Florida is there for the taking and it starts with a win here.
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